Chief Executive’s Best/Worst States for Business 2012 – Ohio 35

Chief Executive’s 2012 Best and Worst States in which to do business has Ohio at 35th, up from 41 last year:

In Chief Executive’s eighth annual survey of CEO opinion of Best and Worst States in which to do business, Texas easily clinched the No. 1 rank, the eighth successive time it has done so. California earns the dubious honor of being ranked dead last for the eighth consecutive year.

This year, 650 business leaders responded to our annual survey, up from 550 in 2011. CEOs were asked to grade states in which they do business among a variety of areas, including tax and regulation, quality of workforce and living environment. The Lone Star State was given high marks foremost for its business-friendly tax and regulatory environment. But its workforce quality, second only to Utah’s, is also highly regarded.

The list also touches on an issue The Buckeye Institute has focused on this year, right-to-work laws:

It may be no accident that most of the states in the top 20 are also right-to-work states, as labor force flexibility is highly sought after when a business seeks a location. Several economists, most notably Ohio State’s Richard Vedder and Harvard’s Robert Barro, have found that the economies in R-to-W areas grow faster than other states, have higher employment and attract more inward migration. Governor Scott Walker’s battle with the unions in Wisconsin (See “Will Wisconsin Rise Again?”), a state that edged into the top 20 this year for this first time, demonstrates that the struggle for a pro-growth agenda can be contentious. As one Badger State business leader remarked, “Finally, Wisconsin is headed in the right direction.”

There are signs that Ohio is headed in the right direction on a number of fronts, but it is equally true that there is a lot of work yet to be done.  This CEO survey confirms that impression.

Ohio must tackle fundamental reform across a number of issues if it is to change the way the rest of the country, and the world, views its business climate.

Posted in Economy, Labor | Tagged , , , | 1 Comment

State Auditor Finds $6 Million in Savings for ODOT

State Auditor Dave Yost should get a solid round of applause for the latest report issued by the office.   According to the Associated Press, the Auditor found $6 million in potential savings for the Ohio Department of Transportation (ODOT).

Those savings could be achieved through a variety of means including:

  • selling underused heavy equipment which would gain revenue and avoid unnecessary maintenance costs; and
  • closing two rest areas along I-70 that are close to other alternatives.

The approach of seeking to leverage underused assets and closing down the operation of facilities that may no longer be needed should be applied beyond ODOT.  After all, while 6 million in an overall state budget eclipsing $50 billion in simply state general revenue funds may not be a lot, over time these kind of expenses add up and create dead weight that diverts precious tax dollars away from other uses and services that Ohioans expect.

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Teacher Pension Changes Welcome, But Still Insufficient

The State Teachers Retirement System (STRS) of Ohio recently released its fourth reform plan to address the significant fiscal challenges facing the system ($43 billion in unfunded liabilties).  As the Ohio Senate prepares to tackle public pension reform legislation as early as next month, it’s important to discern the positive aspects of STRS’s proposal and areas that need further reform.

Below are the key components of STRS’s proposal:

Increase in member contributions from 10 to 14 percent of salary.

STRS is correct not to ask taxpayers to bail out the pension fund through higher employer contribution rates (although STRS’s original plan did include a taxpayer bailout that was later removed).  Taxpayers already contribute toward teachers’ retirement at higher rates (14 percent of salary) than do employers in the private sector (10.2 percent average).

If retired teachers are to continue to draw generous, guranteed pensions ($56,000/year starting pension for career teachers according to STRS’s 2011 CAFR) teachers, not taxpayers, should provide the funding to do so.  A more equitable reform would be to decrease the taxpayer 14 percent contribution down to the 10.2 percent average private-sector contribution.

Increase retirement age to 60 with 35 years of service.

Currently, a teacher can retire at any age and receive full pension benefits with just 30 years of service, making it possible for some teachers to retire in their early 50’s.  With increasing life expectancies, it is highly conceivable that a large number of retired teachers spend as many years drawing pensions benefits as they spent teaching in the classroom.  Raising the retirement age and service requirements (although not fully implemented until 2026) begins to address this issue, but the system is still more generous than what many private-sector workers receive.

Typing pension eligibility to Social Security eligibility would be a better reform that would save significant taxpayer dollars.  Private-sector workers must wait until 67 years of age to receive full benefits from Social Security.  Teachers could still retire after 35 years of service but their pensions would be untouchable until they have reached 67 years of age.

Increase the number of years in final average salary (FAS) calculations from three to five.

The three-year FAS calculation is easily manipulated by employees through the process known as double dipping and is deserving of reform.  While a five-year FAS calculation is an improvement (although somewhat arbitrary), transitioning to a career-based FAS calculation is a more permanent, cost-effective solution.

Reducing the cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) from three to two percent.

Reducing the cost-of-living adjustment from three percent to two percent better reflects changes in the prices of consumer goods and services.  It also is a powerful tool for controlling costs.

A better reform would be indexing COLA increases to changes in the consumer price index, with a cap set at two percent.  Another idea is to suspend COLA increases until the STRS pension fund achieves an 80 percent funded level, as was recently done in Rhode Island.

Reduction in benefit multiplier for those with 30-plus years of service.

Reducing the benefit multiplier to 2.2 percent for each year of service, not just the first 30 years, is a prudent step that reduces high-end payouts to career government employees.  A more robust reform would be a decrease in the multiplier across all lengths of service.  As STRS pension are quite generous, a broad-based reduction in the benefit multiplier would help bring pension payouts back in line with private-sector equivalents.

Overall, STRS’s reform proposal is a modest improvement to a deeply flawed system.  While making adjustments to benefit formulas and contribution rates does improve the fiscal health of the fund, the reforms do nothing to alter the defined-benefit structure.  Any reform is better than the status quo, but reforming from within the defined-benefit system alone will not produce the type of reforms that taxpayers expect and deserve.

Legislators face two divergent paths on public pension reform.  Path one, the STRS model, tamps down the crisis only temporarily.  Minor tweaks and changes may be enough to allow the system to get by for now, but they cannot guarantee long-term stability.  And in the end, it’s still the taxpayer that is ultimately held responsible for closing the gap.

Path two is the route that forward thinking states such as Rhode Island, Virginia, and California are pursuing.  Instead of reforming just enough to live another day, these states have tackled the defined-benefit structure itself, and in doing so, will save taxpayer dollars, reduce the risk on taxpayer investments, and still provide reasonable benefit levels to former government employees.

That’s the choice that Ohio faces.  STRS’s plan leads us down the familiar path of using timid solutions to address serious problems.  The more robust reforms that we articulate better address that serious challenge that Ohio faces.

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March 2012 Ohio by the Numbers Report Now Available

The March 2012 Ohio by the Numbers report is now available.

This report compares Ohio to other states in overall private sector job growth over several distinct time spans.  The goal is to illustrate Ohio’s overall economic trajectory over the past 22 years while capturing its specific performance during both boom and bust cycles as well as its current recovery.

The periods analyzed are: from 1990 until the present day, from peak employment in 2000 through the present day and from the beginning of the current decade to the present day.

Ohio lost 8,300 private sector jobs in March and fell to 23rd nationally in terms of private sector job growth since January 2010, growing at a 3.4 percent rate (top ranked North Dakota grew 15.8 percent over the same time span). Meanwhile, Ohio continued to rank 47th for private sector job growth since January of 1990, growing at 5.9 percent (top ranked Nevada grew 82.9 percent over the same time span).

Assuming the “Best Case Recovery” scenario of a private sector growth rate similar to the 1990s boom, Ohio will not recover to peak employment of 4.85 million, which was reached in March 2000, until at least March 2017.  It is more likely that peak employment will not return until the early 2020s.

As for individual industry sectors, only Professional and Business Services and Education and Health Services have more people employed in them than in either 1990 or 2000.

Additionally, the report shows that Forced Union states (which includes Ohio and most of its neighbors with the recent exception of Indiana which became a worker freedom state in February) had a private sector growth rate far below Worker Freedom states.  Since 1990, Worker Freedom states’ private sector jobs grew at a 36 percent rate vs. only 13 percent for Forced Union states.  Even during the decade from 2000-2010, which included the tech bubble burst of 2000 and the “Great Recession” of 2008-2009, Worker Freedom states gained jobs for a minimal growth of around 0.1 percent while Forced Union states lost 5 percent.  Since 2010, Worker Freedom states also outperformed Forced Union states, growing at a 4.1 percent rate vs. only 3.4 percent.

To view the full report, please Click Here.

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Be Wary of Those Pushing the Status Quo

Governor Kasich’s rollout of a Mid-Biennial Review (MBR) process has generated a great deal of debate across a host of policy issues.  And those proposals touching on taxes are among the most debated and often the most heated.

Whatever your position on the details of the proposals, what these debates should be focused on is how to reform and restructure our tax and regulatory code in order to create an overall business climate that attracts investment and creates growth and opportunity for Ohioans.

Unfortunately, it instead too often falls into a tired discussion of preserving a status quo that has kept Ohio mired in the economic doldrums for decades (38th in the country in economic growth even in the “boom” 1990’s).

A case and point is this editorial in the Toledo Blade which sites research from Policy Matters Ohio, a left leaning think tank,

“Rather than reduce the tax rate for banks, Policy Matters Ohio credibly argues, the state should tax all financial institutions at the 1.3 percent rate that banks now pay. State lawmakers ought to close loopholes in the tax system without merely returning that money to financial institutions in a different form.

Instead, they should use the money to start to reverse the spending slashes in the current state budget. “

While the op-ed does offer a positive statement regarding closing “tax loopholes” (something the Buckeye Institute has long promoted as a key to sound policy) and commending Governor Kasich on this, the overall tenor is of defending the status quo.

The Buckeye Institute has outlined ideas to reform local governments in order to save money and reduce the need for increased revenue (see our Joining Forces report).

While many reforms are needed, step one is to simply stop feeding the beast.  We must use this time to make real changes instead of papering over structural problems with temporary new tax revenue that will evaporate over time if our economy fails to grow and expand.

Reform must remain the focus.  Reform the tax code.  Reform government (state and local; its structure, spending, services, etc.).  Reform public worker compensation.  Reform the regulatory environment.  These, and only these, types of acts can put Ohio on a path toward prosperity and expanded opportunity.

No matter how well intended, calls to preserve and shore up a system that resulted in Ohio losing more private sector jobs than any other state except Michigan between 2000-2010 should be recognized for what they are: a commitment to further economic stagnation and fewer opportunities for Ohioans.

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Buckeye Institute to Offer Session at Citizen Watchdog Event

The Buckeye Institute’s Statehouse Liaison and Policy Analyst, Greg  R. Lawson, will be participating in a Citizen Watchdog event in Westerville, Ohio on Saturday, May 12.

The event is put together by the Franklin Center for Government & Public Integrity in order to equip active citizens to become fiscal watchdogs in their local communities.

The Buckeye Institute is very proud to have been asked to participate.  Lawson’s session will discuss the following your money and the importance of watching local government spending.

The event’s keynote will be presented by the President of Project Veritas, James O’Keefe.

To see a full list of speakers and to RSVP, please Click Here.

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The Momentum Grows: Virginia Creates Mandatory Hybrid System

Just days ago, the Commonwealth of Virginia enacted one of the most sweeping pieces of public pension reform legislation in the country, joining the growing ranks of states that have rejected the status quo and embraced real reform.

Similar to legislation passed last year in Rhode Island, Virginia’s reform package establishes a mandatory hybrid retirement plan for employees hired after Jan. 1, 2014.  Employees will pay 4 percent of salary into a defined-benefit  (DB) plan and 1 percent into a defined-contribution (DC) plan.  Government employers will contribute a minimum of 1 percent of salary into the DC plan and match up to an additional 3.5 percent for employees who wish to contribute additional amounts.

The legislation also makes adjustments in service length requirements, final average salary calculations, benefit multipliers, and cost-of-living adjustments.

The need for the legislation is obvious.  The Virginia Retirement System possesses unfunded liabilities of $24 billion, leaving only 60 cents of assets to cover every one dollar in liabilities.  Failure to reform would certainly lead to eventual collapse.  The reform legislation will save taxpayers $9 billion by 2031.  Moody’s credit rating agency has considered the reforms to be credit positive.

Hybrid systems are appealing for multiple reasons.  Under the current defined-benefit systems, government workers experience zero risk while taxpayers shoulder the entire investment burden.   If the fund underperforms, taxpayers are stuck with the tab.

Hybrid plans spread risk more evenly.  While a smaller defined-benefit pension is still guaranteed, government workers also shoulder a portion of their investment risk.  Workers also gain greater portability compared to the traditional defined-benefit plan.

The end result is a plan that saves taxpayer dollars, spreads out investment risk, limits runaway liabilities, and provides a reliable source of retirement income for government retirees.  While hybrid plans may not provide the savings or simplicity of pure defined-contribution plans, they are a strong first step in reigning in runaway defined-benefit pensions.

As more states introduce and enact hybrid plans, the momentum of reform will continue to grow.  Ohio, for instance, finds itself in a similar pension dilemma as Virginia.  With $72 billion in collective unfunded liabilities and only 65 cents for every dollar in owed, Ohio is ripe for a mandatory hybrid plan.

The only thing that stands in the way of true reform in Ohio is legislative will.  Breaking away from the status quo is challenging; it is easy to revert to many of the same habits that helped to bring us here.  But as a growing number of states have shown, the status quo is unsustainable and that real fiscal responsibility is found in taking bold actions today to create a brighter fiscal future for tomorrow.

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Want to Save Teacher Jobs?  Look at the Compensation!

Early last year we released a fascinating report showing how many school districts could go from projecting multi-million dollar budget deficits to surpluses without necessarily eliminating large numbers of jobs.

How?  Compensation reform.

This kind of discussion might help ease the pain of over 200 teachers in the Cincinnati Public School system.  As the Dispatch recently reported,

“The Cincinnati school board voted yesterday to eliminate 237 instructors, including 35 who would be laid off. The Cincinnati Enquirer reports 112 of the job cuts are retirements or resignations and 90 are long-term substitutes. 

Leaders in the district of 32,000 students say cuts in state and federal funding are to blame.”

Amazingly, using 5-year forecasts from Cincinnati from 2010 (go to the Cincinnati district page) showed the district anticipated a cumulative deficit of $201 million!

The Buckeye Institute estimated that if the district cut 10 percent in total compensation (wages and benefits) from the district’s budget in 2011 and then indexed growth to approximate inflation, the deficit would be cut by over half, down to $96 million.

Would those 35 teachers being laid off and 90 long-term subs feel better with a job that pays a bit less, or with no job at all?   And if you think that its rough in Cincinnati, what about the 500 plus being laid off in Cleveland?

Using the same methodology as described above, the Buckeye Institute found that Cleveland could have cut their over $400 million cumulative deficit down by 25 percent to a little over $300 million by scaling back on compensation packages before having to implement layoffs.

While there would need to be additional cuts and layoffs made in both of these cases, they would be less severe if compensation reform such as what the Buckeye Institute has discussed were on the table.  Additionally, the need to simply jump back on the hamster wheel for tax increases would be mitigated, if not eliminated.

For many smaller, non-urban districts, their entire deficits would have been eliminated under the Buckeye Institute model.

Clearly, no one wants to see their pay cut, but what this exercise shows is that compensation reform can lead to less layoffs, less need for local levies, and even when levies are needed, smaller rate increases.

This is a critical debate that is not happening nearly enough at the local school district level.

There is real pain being spread around the state.  The plain fact is that some pain is unavoidable.  However, a forward thinking plan for reforming compensation will be a cornerstone of any hope that Ohio can come out of this economic turmoil better off.

Note: We are preparing to update this exercise when the latest five-year forecasts are submitted by each of Ohio’s over 600 school districts to the Ohio Department of Education.  Look for those updated numbers in September.

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Ohio Pension Investments Stalling, Taxpayers Losing Ground

Yesterday’s meeting of the Ohio Retirement Study Council (ORSC) provided further evidence for what we’ve been arguing for quite some time: Ohio’s pension funds’ investment assumptions are set unrealistically high.  And now that returns are falling far short of their goals, Ohio taxpayers are ultimately stuck with the tab.

From Gongwer News Service, here’s the breakdown of each pension fund’s returns over the past decade:

Pension Fund

Portfolio Return Assumption

Second Half 2011 Return

One Year Return

OPERS

8.00%

-4.5%

0.6%

STRS

7.75%

-3.8%

1.6%

OP&F

8.25%

-3.9%

2.5%

SERS

7.75%

-4.8%

-0.1%

HPRS

8.00%

-6.2%

-2.9%

Pension Fund

Three Year Return

Five Year Return

Ten Year Return

OPERS

11.0%

1.6%

5.5%

STRS

11.4%

1.4%

5.8%

OP&F

12.8%

2.7%

6.3%

SERS

9.3%

0.7%

4.8%

HPRS

10.8%

1.0%

5.2%

As seen above, pension investment returns over the past ten years have fallen considerably shorter than their assumed rates of return—not the mention the very poor performance over the past six months.  While a strong 2010 buoyed the three-year average return, this temporary growth was unable to close funding gaps.

Weak returns have profound implications.  Public pension funds rely on investment returns to fund over two-thirds of retiree benefits, so when returns fall short, liabilities balloon rapidly.

Current unfunded liabilities for Ohio’s pension funds total nearly $72 billion.  As returns continue to fall short, this number will only grow.  And because of the defined-benefit structure, it is ultimately the taxpayer who is responsible for making sure that shortfalls are closed and benefits are paid.

The main issue with setting investment assumptions is risk.  While keeping the assumed return rate high helps improve the fiscal health of the pension fund (at least on paper) it does expose taxpayer dollars to greater risk.  Lowering assumptions weakens fund health, but it does better protect taxpayer investment.

Many public pension administrators are willing keep their investment assumptions high, citing average 30-year returns of around 8.0 percent.  But is the past truly prologue?  What’s important is not the boom years of the 1990s which inflated 30-year investment returns; what’s truly important is what’s to come in future decades.

A growing number of experts have serious doubts about pension funds achieving 8.0+ percent returns in years to come and the amount of risk that such an investment strategy requires.  For instance, private-sector defined-benefit plans use an average investment assumption of only 5.22 percent.

As a representative from Milliman Consultants (independent actuarial firm) noted yesterday at the ORSC meeting, “There are serious questions about whether 8.0 percent is the right number.”  Assumptions of 7.75 percent are already considered aggressive for the industry.

As we’ve stated, Ohio’s public pension plans should set investment assumptions at rates that reflect realistic expectations so that taxpayer dollars are not exposed to unnecessary risk.  If that means that pension fund health declines, at least taxpayers will have an understanding of the true depth of the problem and be less exposed to market volatility.  Additionally, we support further reforms that transition away from defined-benefit plans into defined-contribution systems.  Such a transition would be more fiscally responsible to taxpayers while still providing reasonable retirement benefits to our former government employees.

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Accountability a Must at ALL Levels of Government

While transparency is one key to preserving taxpayer dollars, the other indispensable element is accountability.  With that in mind, Ohio Auditor Dave Yost deserves a solid round of kudos for seeking to address real problems with accountability in local governments and schools.

On April 17, Yost announced that he would work with State Representative Christina Hagan (R- Alliance) and State Senator Tim Shaffer (R- Lancaster) on legislation that would shine a brighter light on local government spending.

While there are many provisions in the bill, some o the highlights include those that:

  • Allow the state to withhold funding to a county, township or municipality if that entity is declared unauditable;
  • Allow the Ohio Department of Education to withhold payments if a school declared “unauditable” fails to bring its records up to snuff within 45 days;
  • Prohibits a charter school sponsor of an “unauditable” charter school from opening another one for a specified period of time; and
  • Prohibits fiscal officers and treasurers convicted of “dereliction of duty” from holding office for years and not until they have repayed any amounts of public money owed.

Taxpayers deserve as much protection as possible and it is impossible to offer protection without accountability.

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